In each question below is given a statement followed by two conclusions…
2024
In each question below is given a statement followed by two conclusions numbered I and II. You have to assume everything in the statement to be true, then consider the two conclusions together and decide which of them logically follows beyond a reasonable doubt from the information given in the statement.
Statements: Our securities investments carry market risk. Consult your investment advisor or agent before investing.
Conclusions:
i. One should not invest in securities.
ii. The investment advisor calculates the market risk with certainty.
- A.
Only conclusion I follows
- B.
Only conclusion II follows
- C.
Either I or II follows
- D.
Neither I nor II follows
Show answer & explanation
Correct answer: D
Concept: In statement-conclusion reasoning, a conclusion is judged to "follow" only if it can be deduced with certainty directly from the statement itself, without importing assumptions, general knowledge, or opinions the statement does not state. A warning about risk does not, by itself, imply either a ban on the action being warned about or a claim about someone's certainty or ability, unless the statement says so explicitly.
Application:
Conclusion I ("One should not invest in securities") reads the risk warning as a prohibition. But the statement's own instruction — consult an advisor before investing — assumes investing is still an option; it asks only for caution, not avoidance. So conclusion I is not a valid deduction.
Conclusion II ("The investment advisor calculates the market risk with certainty") assumes something about the advisor's method and confidence that the statement never states. Recommending consultation says nothing about how precisely or how certainly that advisor assesses risk. So conclusion II is also not a valid deduction.
Cross-check: Since neither conclusion is forced by the statement, and the two conclusions are not complementary alternatives that between them must cover every possibility (so the either/or test does not apply either), the only conclusion consistent with the statement is that neither I nor II follows.