An overestimated prediction about the probability of an event based on…
2026
An overestimated prediction about the probability of an event based on frequency of the event's past occurrences is known as:
- A.
Hindsight bias
- B.
Availability heuristic
- C.
Representativeness heuristic
- D.
Divergent thinking
Attempted by 28 students.
Show answer & explanation
Correct answer: B
This scenario describes the Availability Heuristic. This cognitive bias occurs when individuals estimate the probability of an event based on how easily instances come to mind, often leading to overestimation if recent or vivid past occurrences are recalled.